How do these huge drop off votes for Trump in swing states compare historically? Have we seen anything like this before? I have a real hard time believing that several hundred thousand citizens would vote Democrat on the down ballot races -- for senate or attorney general, etc. -- but then pick Trump for president. I'm not an expert in the field, but it seems to me the only way to get at the guts of what happened is still a Forensic Audit, a close up examination of the ballots compared to the votes tallied. Interestingly, Jackie Singh just published details on Twitter and Reddit that implicate an infamous Russian hack in controlling the GOP and our elections. More should come from that.Thank you for your work.
I agree, I question the outcome because there are too many disparities from previous years...with Musk and DeJoy involved, it definitely is questionable.
Please see a Reddit-community-driven explanation of how AI and brand new Direct to Cell satellite tech could have been used to insert drop off ballots and cause these strange results. https://substack.com/home/post/p-153003086
Investigate the mail-in ballots. Check how many were requested, vs how many were cast. Did Lewis dejoy’s XPO privatized mail processing facility ‘lose’ millions of ballots?
Not to mention those which were held at customs for weeks for no reason and then returned to sender...in Germany. But that didn't stop the woman from flying from Germany to vote in person. True hero. (I read this online and believe it to be true and accurate.)
In NC every state wide race went to democrats, Trump won the state. It’s easier to claim there are funny numbers than recognize that swing states were targeted with multiple tactics to surprise democrat voters. In an election where you only have to chip away tens of thousands votes in key states it’s easy to see how the tactics worked when each of them only had to surprise a few thousand voters to be successful because combined it would tally up to a winning margin. If people don’t learn from this we will be back here again in a couple of years.
The tactics served to cause decreased voter turnout and brainwashing of the damaged cult. It’s called successful marketing and it is not illegal. Same with playing games with voter purges and other suppression tactics. The only illegal crap was the bomb threats to polling location of Election Day but they were just a small impact, but also, add all the small stuff and it becomes just enough.
With a voter group that frequently lets itself be manipulated by media marketing shaping reality it is not surprising there is a failure to fold into a united group on the left. On the right, that diseased media ecosystem has fully co-opted its audience which is why it is in near lockstep voting and has to continue toward more extremes to keep them engaged.
That's fair but, fairly generalized. In contrast, it could be said that voter privacy would veil a states exploit of one race easier than having numerous state & local anomalies. This would create more state scrutiny because the local results, especially in rural, small population regions, could be vetted and recounted easily and draw more attention. With an entire state questioning 1 race, you couldn't generate a sizeable group feeling curious, demanding action.
Now, the reason there were alot of questions about results is where trump's flawed personality comes into frame. IMO, if an exploit was implemented, then trump being trump is what lead to the data being researched. There would be 12 or less counties to manipulate in order to have achieved a winning result and leave a minimal footprint; chip-away as you stated. The best exploits are the ones you never or can't easily find. The never fail, admit fault, winner (self-proclaimed), tough guy, Cohn & Stone disciple, womanizing, and desired persona says I'm better than minimal. He wants all the swing states to prove how desired and popular he is when in fact, he was losing his base support before election day. More manipulation would need some offset, i.e. padding both candidates appropriately in their strongholds, patterning data where implemented but this is assuming there will only be scrutiny if any, on the swing states.So, enter that data patterning seen for the first time in election history. Not 1 red county was flipped to blue and all flips in this election were from blue to red, nationwide. Another never-before seen stat in all previous elections. His small ego and ignorance may be the reason this data manipulation was found.
- 4 years constant FOX campaign for GOP's in all 50 states
From Hopium Chronicles on SubStack.
We need a more robust 24/7/365 pro-democracy media we discussed yesterday, but we also need a more aggressive Democratic Party-led strategy to engage Democratic voters in all 50 states to drive turnout in every election, in every state. The Democratic Party and our Presidential campaigns have to be more than just 7 battleground states.
The only TV outlet for Dems is Free Speech TV. One guy like Mark Cuban could buy it and make it our megaphone. This is why we suck at delivering our message. Nobody saw it. Thanks to Fox for screwing the country again.
I thought THE SAME since Nov 6. Are we collectively just “coming to” now? in order to discuss, organize, rally, protest, resist, respond and say FU to the patriarchal society? No way am I accepting the outcome of 2024 U.S. “election”! It was sooooow manipulated. I’m not a D nor an R. I’m human.
When you gave this information to the candidates, the Democratic party, various honest election advocacy groups, meidas news hosts, even the cnns of the world, or the Courts, anybody?
These are indeed strange numbers. As others have pointed out, historical context matters - has this degree of drop off voting happened before? My own cruder analysis comparing only drop off votes between presidential and senate elections in swing vs non-swing states found the same basic results as yours - drop off votes heavily favored Trump in swing states in 2024. Even with the small sample size of the swing state group, statistical testing suggests the differences in drop off votes in swing vs non-swing states is improbable.
I also pulled the data from 2020 as a comparison. Drop off votes favoring Trump in swing states increased dramatically from 2020 to 2024. I can't speak to other historical data. Did this happen, for example, when Reagan won in a blowout in 1980?
I also can't speak to reasons, nefarious or innocent, that caused these drop off numbers. What I do know is numbers, and these numbers are so anomalous that they're setting off all my data analysis alarms.
I'd like to think there are innocent reasons for the dropoff votes, like the possibilities listed at the end of your post. I'd also feel a lot better if a forensic audit confirmed that these drop off votes are real. Enough experts have shouted "smoke!" that it's worth seeing if there's a fire. Time is running out to investigate this further.
You don't cover Georgia, but I did my own amateur analysis of that state and found a consistent anomalous pattern. In a large number of red counties, Trump's percentage margin of victory goes down from 2020 but the vote total goes up dramatically. He still wins these counties despite his percent of the vote going down. The vote total differences are often extreme. The biggest is Jackson county in which his victory margin goes down by 2.93% but the vote total goes up by 20.23%!
I think this means that Harris was making these counties more competitive, dropping Trump's percentage of the vote significantly. Thus, they had to add drop-off votes to make up for it and maintain Trump's victory. The alternative explanation that Trump is just mega popular doesn't fly, because if people were turning out in bigger numbers because they were excited about his campaign, why would his margin of victory go down? Even more suspicious: if you add up all the extra votes in these counties, they are very close to his margin of victory for the state.
In the blue counties, you see the opposite phenomenon, and Harris's percentage margin of victory goes down slightly or stays the same, while the total number of votes goes down. I suspect this makes up the rest of what Trump needed to take him over the line and out of the margin for automatic recounts.
These numbers appear to be designed to make us think that Trump is just super popular, more than 2016 or 2020, more than ever and somehow this was hidden from us during the campaign. But none of it comports with the known facts and observations during the campaign.
There is no mystery here. You incorrectly assume that voters are almost all registered to one of two parties. That is not the case. Every state, including every swing state, has large numbers of unaffiliated voters not associated with a particular party. These voters are more likely to vote mixed ballots such as the Republican Trump for President and a Democrat for Senator and there is nothing strange about this.
Your own data shows that TOTAL drop-off votes are not unusually high and these totals are smaller than the margins of victory (Arizona total drop-off is 41,355 while margin of victory is 187,382). This shows this isn't about lots of people voting for President and nothing else. It's about more voters not voting straight down the ballot with a single party.
What distinguishes the swing states from the non-swing states is the massive amount of advertising targeted in these states mostly for the Presidential race which is what caused drop-off votes cross-party. That advertising resulted in more unaffiliated voters going with Trump but not choosing Republicans down-ballot. Again, this is perfectly explained and understandable and shows Trump's advertising focus on fear (e.g. immigration) and the economy and ineffective government (e.g. inflation and uneven wealth gains) beat out the fear of authoritarianism.
Finally, given that the electoral college advantage for Republicans requires a Democratic presidential candidate to win the popular vote by about 2% (even so, Hillary Clinton lost the electoral college with a 2.1% popular vote win) having Harris behind by 1.5% in the popular vote made it almost impossible for her to win the electoral college.
You are missing the point that the difference in drop-off between parties is irrelevant. TOTAL (i.e. party-independent) drop-off numbers averaged 0.99% which was less than the margin of victory. When you have around 1/3rd of voters being unaffiliated and many of them voting mixed candidates across parties, you can easily have "drop-off" between parties by having people vote one party for President and a different party for Senator. Again, comparing drop-off between parties is a nearly meaningless statistic.
How do these huge drop off votes for Trump in swing states compare historically? Have we seen anything like this before? I have a real hard time believing that several hundred thousand citizens would vote Democrat on the down ballot races -- for senate or attorney general, etc. -- but then pick Trump for president. I'm not an expert in the field, but it seems to me the only way to get at the guts of what happened is still a Forensic Audit, a close up examination of the ballots compared to the votes tallied. Interestingly, Jackie Singh just published details on Twitter and Reddit that implicate an infamous Russian hack in controlling the GOP and our elections. More should come from that.Thank you for your work.
I agree, I question the outcome because there are too many disparities from previous years...with Musk and DeJoy involved, it definitely is questionable.
The author is honest enough to voice the key observation, the one that matters, up front:
"We don’t have any proof that the election results are incorrect or manipulated."
– Lulu Friesdat
but overwhelming evidence that demands answers
It's unprecedented basically. Typical drop off is usually less than 1%.
Please see a Reddit-community-driven explanation of how AI and brand new Direct to Cell satellite tech could have been used to insert drop off ballots and cause these strange results. https://substack.com/home/post/p-153003086
Investigate the mail-in ballots. Check how many were requested, vs how many were cast. Did Lewis dejoy’s XPO privatized mail processing facility ‘lose’ millions of ballots?
My guess is yes, ballots were conveniently lost or destroyed.
Not to mention those which were held at customs for weeks for no reason and then returned to sender...in Germany. But that didn't stop the woman from flying from Germany to vote in person. True hero. (I read this online and believe it to be true and accurate.)
In NC every state wide race went to democrats, Trump won the state. It’s easier to claim there are funny numbers than recognize that swing states were targeted with multiple tactics to surprise democrat voters. In an election where you only have to chip away tens of thousands votes in key states it’s easy to see how the tactics worked when each of them only had to surprise a few thousand voters to be successful because combined it would tally up to a winning margin. If people don’t learn from this we will be back here again in a couple of years.
If they just do this obvious state of theft, they can easily prove we need to call a National Emergency for the arrest of Trump and his minion.
The tactics served to cause decreased voter turnout and brainwashing of the damaged cult. It’s called successful marketing and it is not illegal. Same with playing games with voter purges and other suppression tactics. The only illegal crap was the bomb threats to polling location of Election Day but they were just a small impact, but also, add all the small stuff and it becomes just enough.
The failure of a voter group to fold into a single group against war, and inequality is where I get the most suspicious.
With a voter group that frequently lets itself be manipulated by media marketing shaping reality it is not surprising there is a failure to fold into a united group on the left. On the right, that diseased media ecosystem has fully co-opted its audience which is why it is in near lockstep voting and has to continue toward more extremes to keep them engaged.
Did you write "surprise" when you meant "suppress" there?
This is pretty obvious. We were robbed!
That's fair but, fairly generalized. In contrast, it could be said that voter privacy would veil a states exploit of one race easier than having numerous state & local anomalies. This would create more state scrutiny because the local results, especially in rural, small population regions, could be vetted and recounted easily and draw more attention. With an entire state questioning 1 race, you couldn't generate a sizeable group feeling curious, demanding action.
Now, the reason there were alot of questions about results is where trump's flawed personality comes into frame. IMO, if an exploit was implemented, then trump being trump is what lead to the data being researched. There would be 12 or less counties to manipulate in order to have achieved a winning result and leave a minimal footprint; chip-away as you stated. The best exploits are the ones you never or can't easily find. The never fail, admit fault, winner (self-proclaimed), tough guy, Cohn & Stone disciple, womanizing, and desired persona says I'm better than minimal. He wants all the swing states to prove how desired and popular he is when in fact, he was losing his base support before election day. More manipulation would need some offset, i.e. padding both candidates appropriately in their strongholds, patterning data where implemented but this is assuming there will only be scrutiny if any, on the swing states.So, enter that data patterning seen for the first time in election history. Not 1 red county was flipped to blue and all flips in this election were from blue to red, nationwide. Another never-before seen stat in all previous elections. His small ego and ignorance may be the reason this data manipulation was found.
Horseshit
Contact Harris and tell her to demand a recount.
🗽🇺🇲🇺🇦
The 2024 DNC Presidental Campaign
- Silence for 3 years, 7 months
- Campaign 5 months in swing states
The 2024 RNC Presidential Campaign
- 4 years constant FOX campaign for GOP's in all 50 states
From Hopium Chronicles on SubStack.
We need a more robust 24/7/365 pro-democracy media we discussed yesterday, but we also need a more aggressive Democratic Party-led strategy to engage Democratic voters in all 50 states to drive turnout in every election, in every state. The Democratic Party and our Presidential campaigns have to be more than just 7 battleground states.
https://open.substack.com/pub/simonwdc?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=280c3q
The only TV outlet for Dems is Free Speech TV. One guy like Mark Cuban could buy it and make it our megaphone. This is why we suck at delivering our message. Nobody saw it. Thanks to Fox for screwing the country again.
I thought THE SAME since Nov 6. Are we collectively just “coming to” now? in order to discuss, organize, rally, protest, resist, respond and say FU to the patriarchal society? No way am I accepting the outcome of 2024 U.S. “election”! It was sooooow manipulated. I’m not a D nor an R. I’m human.
When you gave this information to the candidates, the Democratic party, various honest election advocacy groups, meidas news hosts, even the cnns of the world, or the Courts, anybody?
These are indeed strange numbers. As others have pointed out, historical context matters - has this degree of drop off voting happened before? My own cruder analysis comparing only drop off votes between presidential and senate elections in swing vs non-swing states found the same basic results as yours - drop off votes heavily favored Trump in swing states in 2024. Even with the small sample size of the swing state group, statistical testing suggests the differences in drop off votes in swing vs non-swing states is improbable.
I also pulled the data from 2020 as a comparison. Drop off votes favoring Trump in swing states increased dramatically from 2020 to 2024. I can't speak to other historical data. Did this happen, for example, when Reagan won in a blowout in 1980?
I also can't speak to reasons, nefarious or innocent, that caused these drop off numbers. What I do know is numbers, and these numbers are so anomalous that they're setting off all my data analysis alarms.
I'd like to think there are innocent reasons for the dropoff votes, like the possibilities listed at the end of your post. I'd also feel a lot better if a forensic audit confirmed that these drop off votes are real. Enough experts have shouted "smoke!" that it's worth seeing if there's a fire. Time is running out to investigate this further.
100% rigged. And no one can change my mind.
Why the complete silence from the Harris campaign?
Not a peep?!
At a minimum the voting machines need to be checked for malware hacking.
You don't cover Georgia, but I did my own amateur analysis of that state and found a consistent anomalous pattern. In a large number of red counties, Trump's percentage margin of victory goes down from 2020 but the vote total goes up dramatically. He still wins these counties despite his percent of the vote going down. The vote total differences are often extreme. The biggest is Jackson county in which his victory margin goes down by 2.93% but the vote total goes up by 20.23%!
I think this means that Harris was making these counties more competitive, dropping Trump's percentage of the vote significantly. Thus, they had to add drop-off votes to make up for it and maintain Trump's victory. The alternative explanation that Trump is just mega popular doesn't fly, because if people were turning out in bigger numbers because they were excited about his campaign, why would his margin of victory go down? Even more suspicious: if you add up all the extra votes in these counties, they are very close to his margin of victory for the state.
In the blue counties, you see the opposite phenomenon, and Harris's percentage margin of victory goes down slightly or stays the same, while the total number of votes goes down. I suspect this makes up the rest of what Trump needed to take him over the line and out of the margin for automatic recounts.
These numbers appear to be designed to make us think that Trump is just super popular, more than 2016 or 2020, more than ever and somehow this was hidden from us during the campaign. But none of it comports with the known facts and observations during the campaign.
There is no mystery here. You incorrectly assume that voters are almost all registered to one of two parties. That is not the case. Every state, including every swing state, has large numbers of unaffiliated voters not associated with a particular party. These voters are more likely to vote mixed ballots such as the Republican Trump for President and a Democrat for Senator and there is nothing strange about this.
Your own data shows that TOTAL drop-off votes are not unusually high and these totals are smaller than the margins of victory (Arizona total drop-off is 41,355 while margin of victory is 187,382). This shows this isn't about lots of people voting for President and nothing else. It's about more voters not voting straight down the ballot with a single party.
What distinguishes the swing states from the non-swing states is the massive amount of advertising targeted in these states mostly for the Presidential race which is what caused drop-off votes cross-party. That advertising resulted in more unaffiliated voters going with Trump but not choosing Republicans down-ballot. Again, this is perfectly explained and understandable and shows Trump's advertising focus on fear (e.g. immigration) and the economy and ineffective government (e.g. inflation and uneven wealth gains) beat out the fear of authoritarianism.
Finally, given that the electoral college advantage for Republicans requires a Democratic presidential candidate to win the popular vote by about 2% (even so, Hillary Clinton lost the electoral college with a 2.1% popular vote win) having Harris behind by 1.5% in the popular vote made it almost impossible for her to win the electoral college.
You are missing the point that the difference in drop-off between parties is irrelevant. TOTAL (i.e. party-independent) drop-off numbers averaged 0.99% which was less than the margin of victory. When you have around 1/3rd of voters being unaffiliated and many of them voting mixed candidates across parties, you can easily have "drop-off" between parties by having people vote one party for President and a different party for Senator. Again, comparing drop-off between parties is a nearly meaningless statistic.