These are indeed strange numbers. As others have pointed out, historical context matters - has this degree of drop off voting happened before? My own cruder analysis comparing only drop off votes between presidential and senate elections in swing vs non-swing states found the same basic results as yours - drop off votes heavily favored T…
These are indeed strange numbers. As others have pointed out, historical context matters - has this degree of drop off voting happened before? My own cruder analysis comparing only drop off votes between presidential and senate elections in swing vs non-swing states found the same basic results as yours - drop off votes heavily favored Trump in swing states in 2024. Even with the small sample size of the swing state group, statistical testing suggests the differences in drop off votes in swing vs non-swing states is improbable.
I also pulled the data from 2020 as a comparison. Drop off votes favoring Trump in swing states increased dramatically from 2020 to 2024. I can't speak to other historical data. Did this happen, for example, when Reagan won in a blowout in 1980?
I also can't speak to reasons, nefarious or innocent, that caused these drop off numbers. What I do know is numbers, and these numbers are so anomalous that they're setting off all my data analysis alarms.
I'd like to think there are innocent reasons for the dropoff votes, like the possibilities listed at the end of your post. I'd also feel a lot better if a forensic audit confirmed that these drop off votes are real. Enough experts have shouted "smoke!" that it's worth seeing if there's a fire. Time is running out to investigate this further.
These are indeed strange numbers. As others have pointed out, historical context matters - has this degree of drop off voting happened before? My own cruder analysis comparing only drop off votes between presidential and senate elections in swing vs non-swing states found the same basic results as yours - drop off votes heavily favored Trump in swing states in 2024. Even with the small sample size of the swing state group, statistical testing suggests the differences in drop off votes in swing vs non-swing states is improbable.
I also pulled the data from 2020 as a comparison. Drop off votes favoring Trump in swing states increased dramatically from 2020 to 2024. I can't speak to other historical data. Did this happen, for example, when Reagan won in a blowout in 1980?
I also can't speak to reasons, nefarious or innocent, that caused these drop off numbers. What I do know is numbers, and these numbers are so anomalous that they're setting off all my data analysis alarms.
I'd like to think there are innocent reasons for the dropoff votes, like the possibilities listed at the end of your post. I'd also feel a lot better if a forensic audit confirmed that these drop off votes are real. Enough experts have shouted "smoke!" that it's worth seeing if there's a fire. Time is running out to investigate this further.