And yet no one in the Democratic party is listening. Stephen Spoonamore, Jennfier Singh and you are screaming election interference to no avail. Even if they finally believe you, once he's in, we'll never get him out!
Spoonamore dropped off the radar and stopped posting on Substack over a month ago. I've been wondering if someone told him to shut up. In his last post on Dec 10th, he said he'd be posting more details that same day or the next but has posted nothing since.
Yeah, that was alarming. One would like to believe that the Dems told him to shut up, "we're accessing all that internally, wait a bit", something like that. But I find it much more likely that MAGA's and Muskians got to him, scared him, threatened him, something like that. Afterall, Trump already has most of congress under his blackmail schemes. It was probably why he went so much to Epstein's Island.
I'm utterly surprised that the Harris/Walz campaign generated so much interest, so much hopeful energy, with a terrific ground game and excellent GOTV campaigns, and the vote counts were so tilted towards the guy who said he had all the votes he needed.
Depends on who you talk to. Dems are disgusted and worried plus I live in WNC and we’re still dealing with the floods and will be for years to come. Many homeless and jobless.
I've been saying this for months now. This was a complete hack job to sell a certain narrative, one that would satisfy Trump's enormous ego. Harris was turning states like Ohio, Iowa, Texas, and Florida purple again. I'm not saying she would have won them, but she was making them competitive. We all saw it in the enthusiasm ahead of time. So, they couldn't just hack the swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan, NC, Georgia, Arizona, etc., because it would have looked really weird if OH, TX, FL, etc. got really close and yet he easily won the swing states.
Ahead of time, they hacked the polling aggregates with all kinds of fake polls to seed the idea that the election was a dead-heat and to lend plausibility to the idea that Trump could win. Then they hacked nearly every state to give Trump a victory that made it look like he was suddenly super popular. (Despite the fact that he hadn't won any election since 2016 and then only barely.)
The Ann Selzer poll was probably right. It had Harris up by 3 in Iowa, but Trump won the state by 8. (By the way, that's the same amount of swing as in Webb County Texas, 11 points.) That's why Trump wants to sue Ann Selzer, because it's a very reputable poll that has seldom been wrong and it's the only thing that isn't fitting in with his artificially produced narrative.
Kamala should've asked for recounts back in early November. Now all of this is just to bring the truth out. I don't think anything can save the US from a few more Trump years. Unless someone gets Musk to open his mouth.
Correct me if I'm wrong, coffee is still kicking in, but the clear implication from these graphs and data is that votes were stolen from Harris and given to Trump in all these states.
Yes. The implication is that code manipulation in counting machines (or by counting personel) created a fake surplus of Trump votes, by the same Muskian algorithm, in most of the country, if not the whole country.
What Smart Elections are showing is that Trump stole the election. He is not honest about anything. It was a rape of peoples votes. Yet, the USA continues to sleepwalk into disaster.
In ten words or so please explain drop off ballots as though a third grader (meaning a Fox News viewer) could understand it, so we can explain it to our friends and relatives.
I’m curious and if you already shared I apologize…but have you compared these drop offs to the 2016 and 2020 elections.
Btw the drop off thing was THE most obvious thing and something I noticed right away in my rudimentary data gathering on PA. I was like —wait why is this down ballot thing happening and why are there more votes for AG or Senator than Pres.
Kamala was just that unpopular. I know of Democrats who refused to vote for her. Democrats should try holding an election for their candidate next time.
You’re getting posts taken down on social media because after claims of fraud in the last election the federal government, under Democrat leadership, has strong armed social media companies to crack down on election related “mis/disinformation” that undermines peoples faith in the electoral process. TikTok is especially sensitive to this, and will bend over backwards for the federal government to try and save face because they are facing a nationwide ban.
That's some nice anecdotal evidence you have there. I have seen many, many people saying they know Republicans that did vote for Harris. I've even seen some counties where not ONE crossover ballot (meaning R down-ballot, Harris for President) was counted...while residents of that county spoke up saying their own ballot should have been a crossover.
There, now we've both presented anecdotal evidence on both sides. It's a draw. Care to engage with the statistical data presented here?
Thats nice, but not enough never Trump Republicans to overcome the uncommitted movement, clearly, as the down ballot split suggests. More Democratic leaning voters did vote it appears, just not for the terrible candidate that was forced upon them. The statistics show more voters are registering as independents and willing to split their tickets than in the past. This appearing across almost every county in every state despite differences in process and procedure is more indicative of a general tendency in the way people voted than mass election fraud.
Of course, I can’t rule out the possibility of fraud now as I couldn’t in 2020. Both parties are capable of playing dirty, and both do every election. I just can’t make that determination from stats alone. The stats are neutral. There would have to be an actual investigation, recounts, etc., but thats not in the interest of the two parties who may not want their dirty tricks to be revealed.
What I see though are claims of fraud and the denial of those claims as being plainly partisan. It’s not lost on people who vehemently denied fraud in 2020 that they look like total hypocrites for claiming it now. They also were fully supportive of the social media crackdown on fraud claims in 2020, but now thats a bad thing when it’s your chosen candidate who may be at the receiving end of potential fraud. Funny the author thinks the removal of fact checking is bad for them, as if the fact checkers would take up their narrative position.
And yet in the favorability polls, Trump was under water by 9%, which means 9% of the people who supposedly voted for him didn't like him. Meanwhile, Harris was on the plus side in favorability. So, the available evidence doesn't back up your theory. You obviously haven't spent any time at all reviewing the article because the idea that it could be accounted for by unpopularity is dealt with therein and in other places.
For example, her vote totals in the swing states were equal or greater than Biden's performance in 2020. In addition, there's never been an election where a Dem presidential candidate didn't flip any counties from red to blue. Even in 1984, which was one of the biggest landslides in American history, in which Reagan won every state but Mondale's home state of Minnesota and DC. And yet Mondale still flipped 10 counties from red to blue across the country. Obviously Mondale was a much more unpopular candidate than Harris, the states he won were far fewer and his vote total was far less, and yet Harris didn't flip any red counties blue creating the impossible "Three Color Map".
Plus, there's the "Russian Tail" which is a clear sign of vote flipping, as used by the Kremlin in recent Russian elections.
The polls in their totality showed a neck and neck race with the most likely two outcomes being one candidate or the other taking all the swing states. It was a tossup. Favorability ratings don’t mean much when it comes to predicting electoral outcomes. Kamala was over -15 in favorability until she announced her run. By the election she was -2. Trump after the election went above net 0 from -9. Answering a poll is easy. Getting out and voting requires some effort. Can’t do that on your phone. In other words, who cares, it’s a favorability poll. The actual aggregate state by state polling is the closest we going to get to being able to predict an outcome and that polling was fairly accurate.
As for Kamala not flipping a county, it’s not “ever” but since 1932. You don’t have a large enough sample size to draw any serious inferences from that. Times change. Something that seems unlikely from the small available sample size can in fact happen. Kamala can win more votes in swing states all she wants, but if you don’t win more than the other guy, you still lose. People can change their vote from one election to the other. They can turnout one time and not the other. They can answer a poll and never vote. The results are all that matter.
And I hate to break it to you but the “Russian Tale” is what is called wartime propaganda. Remember the Maine? In case you haven’t noticed there’s a geopolitical spat thats been going on between the Americans and Russians that is dangerously close to all out war. There is a vested interest in spreading anti-Russian narratives to prepare the population for the possibility of total war and to get the population to consent to the cost of war. Nobody is going to look into the supposed “Russian Tale” despite having the most anti-Russian government since the height of the cold war. Why? Because it doesn’t exist. Neither did the Russia collusion hoax that came out of the Clinton campaign. The Russians don’t have some magic monopoly on the technicalities of rigging elections. The fantasies about the Russians controlling US politics are plainly ridiculous. It’s zombie cold war propaganda. They give you an external enemy to hate so you don’t look at the crap they’re pulling domestically.
And yet they did turn out in record numbers. The early voting record for Georgia was broken halfway through the early voting period. How do you break turnout records and end up with 3 million fewer votes? You're saying they turned out for Trump which makes no damn sense at all when he was loonier than ever, people were walking out of his rallies, and his hasn't won a single election since 2016. By all accounts, his popularity was waning, not waxing. On the face of it, there'd at least need to be some explanation for why his popularity supposedly soared enough for him to run the table over all the swing states when his ratings were terrible. You don't get to say the polls were correct when it comes to the nationals and the swings states and wrong when it comes to favorability. You can't have it both ways.
No hate here. You can project onto me all you want, but that doesn't mean a damn thing. I don't hate Russians. And your point that we're close to an all-out war is all the more reason for them to interfere in our elections. Are you so naive to think that they wouldn't prefer Trump to Harris? For certain he'll go easier on them to say the least. In any case, I wasn't even saying that Russia did it so much as saying that the tactics used were the same. In other words, someone was taking notes.
But I'd be happy to be proven wrong. Let's just do a manual hand recount of all the paper ballots in the swing states and found who's right and who's wrong. Perhaps there's multiple potential explanations for all of these anomalies, but the fact that they're there and were extremely rare or not present in other elections makes it worth checking out.
But somehow I suspect you're going to argue against that, aren't you?
You need to listen to and meet some actual Americans who exist outside your narrative bubble. All the things you think people care about they don’t actually care about much. Some of those things have actually garnered sympathy, like the politically motivated lawsuits and prosecutions or getting shot. Other personal failings don’t really matter to voters much, especially when revealed through politically motivated lawsuits. Biden set the standard for Presidential lucidity, and Trump passes that bar. Good genes and quitting drinking can do wonders. If it wasn’t an issue 4 years ago when an already aged Biden barely had to campaign, and wasn’t an issue one year ago when he was clearly too aged, then why is it an issue now?
I live in NYC and come from a blue oasis in a red state. I experienced the local shift away from the Democrats over the last 4 years. Progressive Democrats used to hold huge rallies here not 5 years ago. Their last rallies were a dud. Trump held a big rally in the Bronx and a big rally in MSG (fascist because the American Nazi party also held a really there?). A man self immolated near the courthouse Trump was being examined. This was a city that blared the song “Fuck Donald Trump” on repeat 4 years ago after his defeat, I was here then, too.
The Democrats really fucked up. I mean, we can just start with the fact that Trump was nominated, Kamala wasn’t. The fucking “Democratic” party couldn’t even elect a nominee via the normative post ‘68 processes . It’s still not clear exactly how the decision was made to push Biden out and put Kamala in. The election results represent a big FU to the Democrats, for all their failures and blunders.
Very cool visualization of the differential between the AG/senate and presidential races, by county!
One viable explanation for the dropoff you highlighted is an incumbent and/or popular Democratic senate candidate who successfully captures Republican voters across counties. That is, a Democratic senate candidate who is beloved by many Republicans who otherwise vote along party lines (i.e. for President). How do you rule that explanation out?
How does the 2024 data compare to prior elections in these states or with popular Democratic senate candidates and a tight presidential election?
Sure, that would be reasonable in *some* counties. Do you think it's statistically probable that that happened in *every* county, in multiple states?
The comparisons I've seen to previous years showed what you would expect, some counties where a popular senator outperformed the presidential candidate, others where the presidential candidate outperformed the down-ballot. It's never *every* county in one direction.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯. I'm no political data expert, so I don't know how probable it is. I'm trying to get a gauge on that by asking whether this is a consistent pattern across all states, or whether this is a significantly different pattern than we've seen in similarly close elections. I was hoping the author could provide some of that context, in the spirit of data transparency. It sounds like you've been exploring some of that context; could you provide helpful links that I could follow to learn more about the probability, by comparing against other states and/or years?
Basically the more often you find this so-called drop off it's no longer an anomaly. Pretty much a stretch to say that there's been tampering all over the country of the same sort. So how about this... 1. people wanted Trump more than they wanted Harris even if they were voting Democratic down ballot. Have you checked out The Free Press inquiry and articles about AOC voters who also voted for Trump? 2. You're lying with numbers for a political agenda.
How many voting systems are used in North Carolina? Is it just one? Or are there many? If it's just one, which one is it?
I have the same question for all the other states you named in this post. If somebody has rigging the election, it would be much harder if they rigged a variety of voting systems. But if there was only one voting system in the state, then it's easier.
There are only two main voting machine vendors in the U.S: Dominion & ES&S. If you add Hart, between them they cover about 88% or more of U.S. voting jurisdictions. The simplest way to do this would be to hack into the systems of the two main companies using an Advanced Persistent Threat model similar to what was used in the Salt Typhoon hack, which may have gone on for as long as two years.
Plant malware in the updates of the two main vendors systems. Then the vendors will install those for you.
Thanks so much Lulu and the whole team for everything you're doing. I plan to get in touch again tomorrow and see what else I might do to help.
Thank you! We can use your help!
And yet no one in the Democratic party is listening. Stephen Spoonamore, Jennfier Singh and you are screaming election interference to no avail. Even if they finally believe you, once he's in, we'll never get him out!
Spoonamore dropped off the radar and stopped posting on Substack over a month ago. I've been wondering if someone told him to shut up. In his last post on Dec 10th, he said he'd be posting more details that same day or the next but has posted nothing since.
Yeah, that was alarming. One would like to believe that the Dems told him to shut up, "we're accessing all that internally, wait a bit", something like that. But I find it much more likely that MAGA's and Muskians got to him, scared him, threatened him, something like that. Afterall, Trump already has most of congress under his blackmail schemes. It was probably why he went so much to Epstein's Island.
I live in North Carolina and this is BULLSH*T!
I'm utterly surprised that the Harris/Walz campaign generated so much interest, so much hopeful energy, with a terrific ground game and excellent GOTV campaigns, and the vote counts were so tilted towards the guy who said he had all the votes he needed.
In so many states....
It was never a fair fight..
what are folks saying in North Carolina?
Depends on who you talk to. Dems are disgusted and worried plus I live in WNC and we’re still dealing with the floods and will be for years to come. Many homeless and jobless.
Thanks and best to you and all affected
Please, please, please, someone please end this nightmare. Sooner than later.
Do we'll need to wait four, eight, twelve years of Trump "winning" successive elections (much like Putin) for the mainstream to catch on?
Kamala, Biden, WHY HAVE YOU FAILED US? Could've just asked a few recounts, ffs.
I've been saying this for months now. This was a complete hack job to sell a certain narrative, one that would satisfy Trump's enormous ego. Harris was turning states like Ohio, Iowa, Texas, and Florida purple again. I'm not saying she would have won them, but she was making them competitive. We all saw it in the enthusiasm ahead of time. So, they couldn't just hack the swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan, NC, Georgia, Arizona, etc., because it would have looked really weird if OH, TX, FL, etc. got really close and yet he easily won the swing states.
Ahead of time, they hacked the polling aggregates with all kinds of fake polls to seed the idea that the election was a dead-heat and to lend plausibility to the idea that Trump could win. Then they hacked nearly every state to give Trump a victory that made it look like he was suddenly super popular. (Despite the fact that he hadn't won any election since 2016 and then only barely.)
The Ann Selzer poll was probably right. It had Harris up by 3 in Iowa, but Trump won the state by 8. (By the way, that's the same amount of swing as in Webb County Texas, 11 points.) That's why Trump wants to sue Ann Selzer, because it's a very reputable poll that has seldom been wrong and it's the only thing that isn't fitting in with his artificially produced narrative.
Ok I see what this is showing. My question is what can be done with it? Can we stop the inauguration with a lawsuit? Do we impeach later?
Kamala should've asked for recounts back in early November. Now all of this is just to bring the truth out. I don't think anything can save the US from a few more Trump years. Unless someone gets Musk to open his mouth.
Correct me if I'm wrong, coffee is still kicking in, but the clear implication from these graphs and data is that votes were stolen from Harris and given to Trump in all these states.
Nice work. Thanks
Yes. The implication is that code manipulation in counting machines (or by counting personel) created a fake surplus of Trump votes, by the same Muskian algorithm, in most of the country, if not the whole country.
What Smart Elections are showing is that Trump stole the election. He is not honest about anything. It was a rape of peoples votes. Yet, the USA continues to sleepwalk into disaster.
A total hack! Harris won!
In ten words or so please explain drop off ballots as though a third grader (meaning a Fox News viewer) could understand it, so we can explain it to our friends and relatives.
How would you explain it to a five year old?
Ishh, that might be tough, I hope someone can give a good answer here and I want that too.
I’m curious and if you already shared I apologize…but have you compared these drop offs to the 2016 and 2020 elections.
Btw the drop off thing was THE most obvious thing and something I noticed right away in my rudimentary data gathering on PA. I was like —wait why is this down ballot thing happening and why are there more votes for AG or Senator than Pres.
The same scenario everywhere showed a consistent voter behavior.
Where’s the hack? If the data is to be interpreted then who are the political scientists with that expertise and their report?
It actually show a consistent manipulation of voting data. The country never voted "consistently" like that.
Kamala was just that unpopular. I know of Democrats who refused to vote for her. Democrats should try holding an election for their candidate next time.
You’re getting posts taken down on social media because after claims of fraud in the last election the federal government, under Democrat leadership, has strong armed social media companies to crack down on election related “mis/disinformation” that undermines peoples faith in the electoral process. TikTok is especially sensitive to this, and will bend over backwards for the federal government to try and save face because they are facing a nationwide ban.
That's some nice anecdotal evidence you have there. I have seen many, many people saying they know Republicans that did vote for Harris. I've even seen some counties where not ONE crossover ballot (meaning R down-ballot, Harris for President) was counted...while residents of that county spoke up saying their own ballot should have been a crossover.
There, now we've both presented anecdotal evidence on both sides. It's a draw. Care to engage with the statistical data presented here?
Thats nice, but not enough never Trump Republicans to overcome the uncommitted movement, clearly, as the down ballot split suggests. More Democratic leaning voters did vote it appears, just not for the terrible candidate that was forced upon them. The statistics show more voters are registering as independents and willing to split their tickets than in the past. This appearing across almost every county in every state despite differences in process and procedure is more indicative of a general tendency in the way people voted than mass election fraud.
Of course, I can’t rule out the possibility of fraud now as I couldn’t in 2020. Both parties are capable of playing dirty, and both do every election. I just can’t make that determination from stats alone. The stats are neutral. There would have to be an actual investigation, recounts, etc., but thats not in the interest of the two parties who may not want their dirty tricks to be revealed.
What I see though are claims of fraud and the denial of those claims as being plainly partisan. It’s not lost on people who vehemently denied fraud in 2020 that they look like total hypocrites for claiming it now. They also were fully supportive of the social media crackdown on fraud claims in 2020, but now thats a bad thing when it’s your chosen candidate who may be at the receiving end of potential fraud. Funny the author thinks the removal of fact checking is bad for them, as if the fact checkers would take up their narrative position.
Try this 2024 election analysis.
https://electiontruthalliance.org/about-us
And yet in the favorability polls, Trump was under water by 9%, which means 9% of the people who supposedly voted for him didn't like him. Meanwhile, Harris was on the plus side in favorability. So, the available evidence doesn't back up your theory. You obviously haven't spent any time at all reviewing the article because the idea that it could be accounted for by unpopularity is dealt with therein and in other places.
For example, her vote totals in the swing states were equal or greater than Biden's performance in 2020. In addition, there's never been an election where a Dem presidential candidate didn't flip any counties from red to blue. Even in 1984, which was one of the biggest landslides in American history, in which Reagan won every state but Mondale's home state of Minnesota and DC. And yet Mondale still flipped 10 counties from red to blue across the country. Obviously Mondale was a much more unpopular candidate than Harris, the states he won were far fewer and his vote total was far less, and yet Harris didn't flip any red counties blue creating the impossible "Three Color Map".
Plus, there's the "Russian Tail" which is a clear sign of vote flipping, as used by the Kremlin in recent Russian elections.
The polls in their totality showed a neck and neck race with the most likely two outcomes being one candidate or the other taking all the swing states. It was a tossup. Favorability ratings don’t mean much when it comes to predicting electoral outcomes. Kamala was over -15 in favorability until she announced her run. By the election she was -2. Trump after the election went above net 0 from -9. Answering a poll is easy. Getting out and voting requires some effort. Can’t do that on your phone. In other words, who cares, it’s a favorability poll. The actual aggregate state by state polling is the closest we going to get to being able to predict an outcome and that polling was fairly accurate.
As for Kamala not flipping a county, it’s not “ever” but since 1932. You don’t have a large enough sample size to draw any serious inferences from that. Times change. Something that seems unlikely from the small available sample size can in fact happen. Kamala can win more votes in swing states all she wants, but if you don’t win more than the other guy, you still lose. People can change their vote from one election to the other. They can turnout one time and not the other. They can answer a poll and never vote. The results are all that matter.
And I hate to break it to you but the “Russian Tale” is what is called wartime propaganda. Remember the Maine? In case you haven’t noticed there’s a geopolitical spat thats been going on between the Americans and Russians that is dangerously close to all out war. There is a vested interest in spreading anti-Russian narratives to prepare the population for the possibility of total war and to get the population to consent to the cost of war. Nobody is going to look into the supposed “Russian Tale” despite having the most anti-Russian government since the height of the cold war. Why? Because it doesn’t exist. Neither did the Russia collusion hoax that came out of the Clinton campaign. The Russians don’t have some magic monopoly on the technicalities of rigging elections. The fantasies about the Russians controlling US politics are plainly ridiculous. It’s zombie cold war propaganda. They give you an external enemy to hate so you don’t look at the crap they’re pulling domestically.
And yet they did turn out in record numbers. The early voting record for Georgia was broken halfway through the early voting period. How do you break turnout records and end up with 3 million fewer votes? You're saying they turned out for Trump which makes no damn sense at all when he was loonier than ever, people were walking out of his rallies, and his hasn't won a single election since 2016. By all accounts, his popularity was waning, not waxing. On the face of it, there'd at least need to be some explanation for why his popularity supposedly soared enough for him to run the table over all the swing states when his ratings were terrible. You don't get to say the polls were correct when it comes to the nationals and the swings states and wrong when it comes to favorability. You can't have it both ways.
No hate here. You can project onto me all you want, but that doesn't mean a damn thing. I don't hate Russians. And your point that we're close to an all-out war is all the more reason for them to interfere in our elections. Are you so naive to think that they wouldn't prefer Trump to Harris? For certain he'll go easier on them to say the least. In any case, I wasn't even saying that Russia did it so much as saying that the tactics used were the same. In other words, someone was taking notes.
But I'd be happy to be proven wrong. Let's just do a manual hand recount of all the paper ballots in the swing states and found who's right and who's wrong. Perhaps there's multiple potential explanations for all of these anomalies, but the fact that they're there and were extremely rare or not present in other elections makes it worth checking out.
But somehow I suspect you're going to argue against that, aren't you?
You really think that the most popular guy is the one that, after losing the last election:
- tried a televised and violent coup
- got multiple court cases and indictions (i might be using the wrong term here, I'm not a lawyer)
- broke his oath to the constitution
- got convicted of rape
- got outed as Epstein's close friend, pictured with him in multiple times and events, featuring heavily in the flight lists
- had numerous falling events, including a few where he left his people out in the cold night without the GOP transport that took them there
- had several events of mumbling and brainfarting in front of audiences
- had a terrible night in the debate against Kamala ("eating cats and dogs")
- had a whole 40min event where he just decided to dance (or wiggle) to his audience hearing "ave maria" over and over, and also "YMCA" afterwards
- had a blatantly fascist event in New York.
- attacked his own voters (like Puerto Ricans) and told he didn't need more votes (repeatedly)
- got shot by people of his own party
You really think anyone after all that would still have ALL the votes from 2020 and still a bunch more?
Not to mention all his failings BEFORE the 2020 election.
You need to listen to and meet some actual Americans who exist outside your narrative bubble. All the things you think people care about they don’t actually care about much. Some of those things have actually garnered sympathy, like the politically motivated lawsuits and prosecutions or getting shot. Other personal failings don’t really matter to voters much, especially when revealed through politically motivated lawsuits. Biden set the standard for Presidential lucidity, and Trump passes that bar. Good genes and quitting drinking can do wonders. If it wasn’t an issue 4 years ago when an already aged Biden barely had to campaign, and wasn’t an issue one year ago when he was clearly too aged, then why is it an issue now?
I live in NYC and come from a blue oasis in a red state. I experienced the local shift away from the Democrats over the last 4 years. Progressive Democrats used to hold huge rallies here not 5 years ago. Their last rallies were a dud. Trump held a big rally in the Bronx and a big rally in MSG (fascist because the American Nazi party also held a really there?). A man self immolated near the courthouse Trump was being examined. This was a city that blared the song “Fuck Donald Trump” on repeat 4 years ago after his defeat, I was here then, too.
The Democrats really fucked up. I mean, we can just start with the fact that Trump was nominated, Kamala wasn’t. The fucking “Democratic” party couldn’t even elect a nominee via the normative post ‘68 processes . It’s still not clear exactly how the decision was made to push Biden out and put Kamala in. The election results represent a big FU to the Democrats, for all their failures and blunders.
Very cool visualization of the differential between the AG/senate and presidential races, by county!
One viable explanation for the dropoff you highlighted is an incumbent and/or popular Democratic senate candidate who successfully captures Republican voters across counties. That is, a Democratic senate candidate who is beloved by many Republicans who otherwise vote along party lines (i.e. for President). How do you rule that explanation out?
How does the 2024 data compare to prior elections in these states or with popular Democratic senate candidates and a tight presidential election?
How does the data look in all 50 states?
Sure, that would be reasonable in *some* counties. Do you think it's statistically probable that that happened in *every* county, in multiple states?
The comparisons I've seen to previous years showed what you would expect, some counties where a popular senator outperformed the presidential candidate, others where the presidential candidate outperformed the down-ballot. It's never *every* county in one direction.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯. I'm no political data expert, so I don't know how probable it is. I'm trying to get a gauge on that by asking whether this is a consistent pattern across all states, or whether this is a significantly different pattern than we've seen in similarly close elections. I was hoping the author could provide some of that context, in the spirit of data transparency. It sounds like you've been exploring some of that context; could you provide helpful links that I could follow to learn more about the probability, by comparing against other states and/or years?
Basically the more often you find this so-called drop off it's no longer an anomaly. Pretty much a stretch to say that there's been tampering all over the country of the same sort. So how about this... 1. people wanted Trump more than they wanted Harris even if they were voting Democratic down ballot. Have you checked out The Free Press inquiry and articles about AOC voters who also voted for Trump? 2. You're lying with numbers for a political agenda.
A forensic audit would settle things 🤷♀️
It would be interesting to pick a few counties and do hand recounts of the hand-marked paper ballots.
It's an anomaly compared to earlier elections.
not lying. investigating
How many voting systems are used in North Carolina? Is it just one? Or are there many? If it's just one, which one is it?
I have the same question for all the other states you named in this post. If somebody has rigging the election, it would be much harder if they rigged a variety of voting systems. But if there was only one voting system in the state, then it's easier.
There are only two main voting machine vendors in the U.S: Dominion & ES&S. If you add Hart, between them they cover about 88% or more of U.S. voting jurisdictions. The simplest way to do this would be to hack into the systems of the two main companies using an Advanced Persistent Threat model similar to what was used in the Salt Typhoon hack, which may have gone on for as long as two years.
Plant malware in the updates of the two main vendors systems. Then the vendors will install those for you.
https://verifiedvoting.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Price-of-Voting-FINAL2.pdf