Sure, that would be reasonable in *some* counties. Do you think it's statistically probable that that happened in *every* county, in multiple states?
The comparisons I've seen to previous years showed what you would expect, some counties where a popular senator outperformed the presidential candidate, others where the presidential candida…
Sure, that would be reasonable in *some* counties. Do you think it's statistically probable that that happened in *every* county, in multiple states?
The comparisons I've seen to previous years showed what you would expect, some counties where a popular senator outperformed the presidential candidate, others where the presidential candidate outperformed the down-ballot. It's never *every* county in one direction.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯. I'm no political data expert, so I don't know how probable it is. I'm trying to get a gauge on that by asking whether this is a consistent pattern across all states, or whether this is a significantly different pattern than we've seen in similarly close elections. I was hoping the author could provide some of that context, in the spirit of data transparency. It sounds like you've been exploring some of that context; could you provide helpful links that I could follow to learn more about the probability, by comparing against other states and/or years?
Sure, that would be reasonable in *some* counties. Do you think it's statistically probable that that happened in *every* county, in multiple states?
The comparisons I've seen to previous years showed what you would expect, some counties where a popular senator outperformed the presidential candidate, others where the presidential candidate outperformed the down-ballot. It's never *every* county in one direction.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯. I'm no political data expert, so I don't know how probable it is. I'm trying to get a gauge on that by asking whether this is a consistent pattern across all states, or whether this is a significantly different pattern than we've seen in similarly close elections. I was hoping the author could provide some of that context, in the spirit of data transparency. It sounds like you've been exploring some of that context; could you provide helpful links that I could follow to learn more about the probability, by comparing against other states and/or years?