Very cool visualization of the differential between the AG/senate and presidential races, by county!
One viable explanation for the dropoff you highlighted is an incumbent and/or popular Democratic senate candidate who successfully captures Republican voters across counties. That is, a Democratic senate candidate who is beloved by many Re…
Very cool visualization of the differential between the AG/senate and presidential races, by county!
One viable explanation for the dropoff you highlighted is an incumbent and/or popular Democratic senate candidate who successfully captures Republican voters across counties. That is, a Democratic senate candidate who is beloved by many Republicans who otherwise vote along party lines (i.e. for President). How do you rule that explanation out?
How does the 2024 data compare to prior elections in these states or with popular Democratic senate candidates and a tight presidential election?
Sure, that would be reasonable in *some* counties. Do you think it's statistically probable that that happened in *every* county, in multiple states?
The comparisons I've seen to previous years showed what you would expect, some counties where a popular senator outperformed the presidential candidate, others where the presidential candidate outperformed the down-ballot. It's never *every* county in one direction.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯. I'm no political data expert, so I don't know how probable it is. I'm trying to get a gauge on that by asking whether this is a consistent pattern across all states, or whether this is a significantly different pattern than we've seen in similarly close elections. I was hoping the author could provide some of that context, in the spirit of data transparency. It sounds like you've been exploring some of that context; could you provide helpful links that I could follow to learn more about the probability, by comparing against other states and/or years?
Very cool visualization of the differential between the AG/senate and presidential races, by county!
One viable explanation for the dropoff you highlighted is an incumbent and/or popular Democratic senate candidate who successfully captures Republican voters across counties. That is, a Democratic senate candidate who is beloved by many Republicans who otherwise vote along party lines (i.e. for President). How do you rule that explanation out?
How does the 2024 data compare to prior elections in these states or with popular Democratic senate candidates and a tight presidential election?
How does the data look in all 50 states?
Sure, that would be reasonable in *some* counties. Do you think it's statistically probable that that happened in *every* county, in multiple states?
The comparisons I've seen to previous years showed what you would expect, some counties where a popular senator outperformed the presidential candidate, others where the presidential candidate outperformed the down-ballot. It's never *every* county in one direction.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯. I'm no political data expert, so I don't know how probable it is. I'm trying to get a gauge on that by asking whether this is a consistent pattern across all states, or whether this is a significantly different pattern than we've seen in similarly close elections. I was hoping the author could provide some of that context, in the spirit of data transparency. It sounds like you've been exploring some of that context; could you provide helpful links that I could follow to learn more about the probability, by comparing against other states and/or years?