I fully support the important work Smart Elections is doing. It's absolutely critical that audits happen. Every counter argument you make here has merit, so please take the following as constructive criticism about a few details.
A p value cannot be zero. Ever. It can be .01, .001, .00000001, or some other super small value. In other words, it can be so close to zero as to make no practical difference, but it can't take a value of zero.
The p value isn't the likelihood that the data are acting in "a random or natural way." It's the probability of getting an equal or more extreme result again from same data if the null hypothesis is true (equal drop off in your case).
Absolutely. Or better yet we get to the root of the problem, the voting machines, the EAC & the testing labs who certify the machines. And do ballot image audits with hashed ballot images @Ray Lutz
I have what may be a dumb question, but has Smart Elections thought to interview the rabbis in the area and just ask them if they endorsed a candidate or instructed their congregations to vote for a particular candidate? There's so much speculation that seems easy to resolve.
Would you be able them to submit an affidavit as you did with the voters? Why would a rabbi, a man of God, lie anyway? At the worst they might just decline to answer
Are you familiar with the conflict between the Hasidic and non-Hasidic communities in Ramapo? Hasidic leadership in Ramapo took over the public school district, although their children do not attend those schools and proceeded to dismantle the public school system attended primarily by children of color.
The report documents “21st century Jim Crow education,” in ERCSD, where the district privileges white students attending private religious schools over students of color, who make up virtually the entirety of the public school population. Once a thriving district, more than a decade of white-majority control of the school board has resulted in cuts to hundreds of positions and slashed programs. The board has allowed facilities to deteriorate, run successive spartan contingency budgets, paid out millions in public funds to private law firms charging exorbitant fees, and violated the voting rights of residents of color.
Just a point of interesting information since every time the rabbis are mentioned, it is always with the assumption they are directing their congregations how to vote, something I can't take as a matter of faith. (No pun intended.)
This is amazing. The desperate NEED to believe in blatant lies by the GOP & the media is stunning. HOW can they refuse to objectively analyze this data & continue to believe assumptions bad faith actors/liars made. For example, the polls were rigged. At no time was there ever a "tie". Harris was always 6-8 pts ahead. Trump only had 46%...not 48, or 49.9%. Nope. He lost 20% of his base to Haley & they did not vote for him. Then there was the Never Trumper group...how big are they? I don't know that it's that relevant a point for what I'm trying to say. This group of people in denial REFUSE to acknowledge that the polls were wrong/rigged by Trump as they were in 2015. They refuse to accept the FACT that was once a given of statistical probabilities that they now pretend isn't a "thing", but it really is a "thing" ....always has been, always will be.
You can't believe those long lines of women were going to vote for HIM, either, unless you're delusional or something. He hacked most of the RED states too, proving he was in jeopardy of losing Texas. He didn't win Iowa, he didn't win NC, GA, NV, AZ, or those 7 out of 7 swing states. Trump trash was caught in CO. (once a RED state) trying to steal their absentee ballots, but CO shut it down. CO. is known as the most secure elections in the country, we could learn some things from how they do theirs. Trump trash, Musk & Putin could not RIG CO., but not for lack of trying & that is an important piece of information for voters to learn & know.
The Felon then began bullying Anne Seltzer because he knew he did not win & she had the goods on him with her poll, so what does he do....he threatens to sue her & to lock her up. She announced she was retiring to get him off of her back. Yet...crickets from the media, as usual. This goes to the overall pattern of the Felon stealing elections, criming, bullying, & trying to prosecute people that have the proof he didn't really win. Yet, nobody remembers to add that little factoid. He is giving himself away every day.
You've got the false bomb threats in PA traced back to the Kremlin. Then you have Musk's little "lottery" that was never investigated properly, along with his "petition" in which he harvested information. His pal, Thiel is involved possibly too with his nasty Palantir used for harvesting people's info to manipulate & track...it needs to be illegal & taken away from the psycho billionaire Thiel. Period.
I only hesitate to say Musk's Starlink is involved because it may not have been necessary, but I don't rule it out if experts find clues leading to that conclusion. I do believe that the voting machines were manipulated & the data show when it took place. The cybersecurity people do this for a living & I'm not about to ignorantly say they're wrong when I know they don't have an agenda like the fascists on the right do.
I'm not even mentioning the spontaneous utterances from the Felon & Musk that point to stealing the election....to say nothing of Putin/Russia's remarks.
Based on the data, the statistical probabilities, the separation of votes, the rich billionaire techbros conspiring....the stupid pod bros chiming in with their stupidity, & the collective denial & demand that WE (Dem primary voters) STHU...it's clear there are a lot of selfish cowards in media etc...that would sell this country out because they want to write a book & my yelling "rigged" was possibly going to derail that for them. I don't listen to corrupt, self-centered, WM privileged, mediocre people who have benefitted from the inequity of the patriarchy. It's despicable that they would even TRY to say this wasn't a stolen election with the O.J. style mountain of evidence proving it! Denial ain't just a river in Egypt.
Amen!! Thank you for providing the receipts. That is all it is with these people, they would rather sell this country out just to make a few bucks calling him lazy and all of the foolishness that we already know. Also, notice with these so called pro democracy creators are always on 24/7 talking about what he is doing and not addressing the elephant in the room. Then you have Dems fighting Rep. Green or Thenadar when they bring up Impeachment. I am like Jessica Denson, I have no patience for these folks and I really appreciate the work that Smart Elections and the Election Truth Alliance are doing to bring this to the light. They are not on social media everyday talking this or that but they are actually doing the work.
I believe it was Pro V&V….my husband works for a municipality which uses a tabulation machine from one of those two companies mentioned and is aware of just how easy it would be to install malware on unbeknownst to the election workers if they weren’t hooking the machine up themselves prior to the election and running checks on its code. It would be very very easy for a company like Pro V&V during one of their “minor updates” to slip in malware similar to Elons minions “Ballotproof”. No amount of pollwatching or minor audits would catch it. It would also explain why the company vanished like a fart in the wind post election….I wonder if they suddenly came into a pile of money…..
I bet the voters who signed sworn affidavits saying they voted for Diane Sare and apparently had their votes "disappear" might object to being dismissed as "inherently unverifiable". There's a simple solution to determining accuracy: a hand recount.
Sorry but this is what is turning data scientists off from this content. There is no such thing as a p-value of 0. It’s just so small that the first 4 decimal places are all 0. If you can’t do the stats communication correctly (this also applies to other arguments made) then you will not get traction here. The eforensics tool is the best argument here.
As i read his article I thought he casually dismissed some things that seemed more important to me. If I could see that he def should have recognized that. Thank you smart for what you are doing. I just cant believe he won without cheating.
“….Reps. Grace Meng, Chuy García, Juan Vargas and Sylvia Garcia. These overperformers have something to tell us about a relatively recent phenomenon in American politics: the inroads Trump has made with people of color. All of those congresspeople are Hispanic or Asian American Democrats representing districts that are majority-Hispanic or plurality-Asian American and voted more strongly for Trump in 2024 than they did in 2020. However, these incumbents were able to hold onto most of those voters, perhaps because of their coethnic ties with their constituents.”
I fully support the important work Smart Elections is doing. It's absolutely critical that audits happen. Every counter argument you make here has merit, so please take the following as constructive criticism about a few details.
A p value cannot be zero. Ever. It can be .01, .001, .00000001, or some other super small value. In other words, it can be so close to zero as to make no practical difference, but it can't take a value of zero.
The p value isn't the likelihood that the data are acting in "a random or natural way." It's the probability of getting an equal or more extreme result again from same data if the null hypothesis is true (equal drop off in your case).
https://open.substack.com/pub/kelleyswords/p/2024-election-results-reflect-voter?r=rcmg&utm_medium=ios
http://leaveitblankny.com/
Definitely a plausible and testable theory. Here's how you test it: Audits
Absolutely. Or better yet we get to the root of the problem, the voting machines, the EAC & the testing labs who certify the machines. And do ballot image audits with hashed ballot images @Ray Lutz
I have what may be a dumb question, but has Smart Elections thought to interview the rabbis in the area and just ask them if they endorsed a candidate or instructed their congregations to vote for a particular candidate? There's so much speculation that seems easy to resolve.
How do we know they are a reliable source of information?
Would you be able them to submit an affidavit as you did with the voters? Why would a rabbi, a man of God, lie anyway? At the worst they might just decline to answer
Are you familiar with the conflict between the Hasidic and non-Hasidic communities in Ramapo? Hasidic leadership in Ramapo took over the public school district, although their children do not attend those schools and proceeded to dismantle the public school system attended primarily by children of color.
https://www.aclu.org/press-releases/nyclu-report-documents-21st-century-jim-crow-east-ramapo-schools-urges-state-action
The report documents “21st century Jim Crow education,” in ERCSD, where the district privileges white students attending private religious schools over students of color, who make up virtually the entirety of the public school population. Once a thriving district, more than a decade of white-majority control of the school board has resulted in cuts to hundreds of positions and slashed programs. The board has allowed facilities to deteriorate, run successive spartan contingency budgets, paid out millions in public funds to private law firms charging exorbitant fees, and violated the voting rights of residents of color.
https://www.nyclu.org/uploads/2021/09/20210914_nyclu_eramapo_report.pdf
"The East Ramapo Central School District in
suburban Rockland County, 40 miles north of
New York City, was once home to thriving and
diverse public schools that attracted families from
surrounding areas. Today, after more than a decade
of local malfeasance and mismanagement, and state
dereliction, it is a beleaguered and broken district. It
has become an extreme example of systemic racism
and educational inequity. "
Wow! That's some vicious stuff. Very nasty. Thanks for opening my eyes. I had no idea that kind of thing was going on.
Compared to manually counting the paper ballots, how does interviewing the rabbis add anything of substance?
Certainly they may have recommended voting a certain way. But that doesn’t prove that anyone did what they suggested.
Just a point of interesting information since every time the rabbis are mentioned, it is always with the assumption they are directing their congregations how to vote, something I can't take as a matter of faith. (No pun intended.)
https://christophertkenny.com/posts/2025-06-17-rockland-sare/
This is amazing. The desperate NEED to believe in blatant lies by the GOP & the media is stunning. HOW can they refuse to objectively analyze this data & continue to believe assumptions bad faith actors/liars made. For example, the polls were rigged. At no time was there ever a "tie". Harris was always 6-8 pts ahead. Trump only had 46%...not 48, or 49.9%. Nope. He lost 20% of his base to Haley & they did not vote for him. Then there was the Never Trumper group...how big are they? I don't know that it's that relevant a point for what I'm trying to say. This group of people in denial REFUSE to acknowledge that the polls were wrong/rigged by Trump as they were in 2015. They refuse to accept the FACT that was once a given of statistical probabilities that they now pretend isn't a "thing", but it really is a "thing" ....always has been, always will be.
You can't believe those long lines of women were going to vote for HIM, either, unless you're delusional or something. He hacked most of the RED states too, proving he was in jeopardy of losing Texas. He didn't win Iowa, he didn't win NC, GA, NV, AZ, or those 7 out of 7 swing states. Trump trash was caught in CO. (once a RED state) trying to steal their absentee ballots, but CO shut it down. CO. is known as the most secure elections in the country, we could learn some things from how they do theirs. Trump trash, Musk & Putin could not RIG CO., but not for lack of trying & that is an important piece of information for voters to learn & know.
The Felon then began bullying Anne Seltzer because he knew he did not win & she had the goods on him with her poll, so what does he do....he threatens to sue her & to lock her up. She announced she was retiring to get him off of her back. Yet...crickets from the media, as usual. This goes to the overall pattern of the Felon stealing elections, criming, bullying, & trying to prosecute people that have the proof he didn't really win. Yet, nobody remembers to add that little factoid. He is giving himself away every day.
You've got the false bomb threats in PA traced back to the Kremlin. Then you have Musk's little "lottery" that was never investigated properly, along with his "petition" in which he harvested information. His pal, Thiel is involved possibly too with his nasty Palantir used for harvesting people's info to manipulate & track...it needs to be illegal & taken away from the psycho billionaire Thiel. Period.
I only hesitate to say Musk's Starlink is involved because it may not have been necessary, but I don't rule it out if experts find clues leading to that conclusion. I do believe that the voting machines were manipulated & the data show when it took place. The cybersecurity people do this for a living & I'm not about to ignorantly say they're wrong when I know they don't have an agenda like the fascists on the right do.
I'm not even mentioning the spontaneous utterances from the Felon & Musk that point to stealing the election....to say nothing of Putin/Russia's remarks.
Based on the data, the statistical probabilities, the separation of votes, the rich billionaire techbros conspiring....the stupid pod bros chiming in with their stupidity, & the collective denial & demand that WE (Dem primary voters) STHU...it's clear there are a lot of selfish cowards in media etc...that would sell this country out because they want to write a book & my yelling "rigged" was possibly going to derail that for them. I don't listen to corrupt, self-centered, WM privileged, mediocre people who have benefitted from the inequity of the patriarchy. It's despicable that they would even TRY to say this wasn't a stolen election with the O.J. style mountain of evidence proving it! Denial ain't just a river in Egypt.
Amen!! Thank you for providing the receipts. That is all it is with these people, they would rather sell this country out just to make a few bucks calling him lazy and all of the foolishness that we already know. Also, notice with these so called pro democracy creators are always on 24/7 talking about what he is doing and not addressing the elephant in the room. Then you have Dems fighting Rep. Green or Thenadar when they bring up Impeachment. I am like Jessica Denson, I have no patience for these folks and I really appreciate the work that Smart Elections and the Election Truth Alliance are doing to bring this to the light. They are not on social media everyday talking this or that but they are actually doing the work.
If we don't address all of this now & make it airtight…we'll never have free & fair elections again. Sleep on that, America! Details matter!
Any chance of getting the court date moved up?
The judge sets the calendar. Not us.
Bummer ☹️
I believe it was Pro V&V….my husband works for a municipality which uses a tabulation machine from one of those two companies mentioned and is aware of just how easy it would be to install malware on unbeknownst to the election workers if they weren’t hooking the machine up themselves prior to the election and running checks on its code. It would be very very easy for a company like Pro V&V during one of their “minor updates” to slip in malware similar to Elons minions “Ballotproof”. No amount of pollwatching or minor audits would catch it. It would also explain why the company vanished like a fart in the wind post election….I wonder if they suddenly came into a pile of money…..
I bet the voters who signed sworn affidavits saying they voted for Diane Sare and apparently had their votes "disappear" might object to being dismissed as "inherently unverifiable". There's a simple solution to determining accuracy: a hand recount.
Well articulated
Can we please just issue recounts so that we have some peace of mind!!
Here's another analysis of your case that provides a distinctly different interpretation. I look forward to your rebuttal.
https://christophertkenny.com/posts/2025-06-17-rockland-sare/
Sorry but this is what is turning data scientists off from this content. There is no such thing as a p-value of 0. It’s just so small that the first 4 decimal places are all 0. If you can’t do the stats communication correctly (this also applies to other arguments made) then you will not get traction here. The eforensics tool is the best argument here.
As i read his article I thought he casually dismissed some things that seemed more important to me. If I could see that he def should have recognized that. Thank you smart for what you are doing. I just cant believe he won without cheating.
Ugh. I appreciate the Brennan Center, but so disappointed that they think 2024 was a successfully run process
https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/policy-solutions/state-agenda-election-security-and-resiliency
Perhaps it is worth considering comparing 2024 to 2016 to take out of the variables the effects of any reluctance to vote for a female President.
We are working on this
This article is from Nathaniel Rakich at 538
“….Reps. Grace Meng, Chuy García, Juan Vargas and Sylvia Garcia. These overperformers have something to tell us about a relatively recent phenomenon in American politics: the inroads Trump has made with people of color. All of those congresspeople are Hispanic or Asian American Democrats representing districts that are majority-Hispanic or plurality-Asian American and voted more strongly for Trump in 2024 than they did in 2020. However, these incumbents were able to hold onto most of those voters, perhaps because of their coethnic ties with their constituents.”
https://abcnews.go.com/538/strongest-senate-house-candidates-2024/story?id=117522803
https://christophertkenny.com/posts/2025-06-17-rockland-sare/